Trade: Bay FC vs. Chicago Stars FC
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming NWSL game, scheduled for Sunday, May 24, 2026 between Bay FC and Chicago Stars FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- —
Market outcomes
| Bay FC | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Draw (Bay FC vs. Chicago Stars FC) | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Chicago Stars FC | 32% YES | 68% NO |
Market context
Bay FC will host Chicago Stars FC in an NWSL regular-season match on Sunday, 24 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 41% implied probability for a Bay FC victory, pricing the home side as slight underdogs despite holding the pitch advantage. This probability emerges from real-time trading activity and represents the marginal price at which buyers and sellers are meeting today; as new information surfaces or match day approaches, the book will adjust.
NWSL home-field advantage typically ranges between 3–5 percentage points in win probability, though this varies considerably by venue and squad strength. Bay FC's home record and Chicago Stars' away form will be material anchors for traders assessing whether 41% fairly values the home side. Historical matchups between these franchises, if any exist, alongside their respective 2026 season trajectories through May, will inform whether the current probability reflects genuine competitive balance or market mispricing.
Key catalysts include team news on injuries or roster changes in the weeks leading to kick-off, recent league standings and form, and any weather or scheduling developments affecting either squad. Traders should monitor official NWSL communications and team announcements for lineup confirmations closer to the settlement window. The match outcome will be determined by the final whistle; settlement occurs at 21:00 UTC on 24 May 2026.
Wikipedia Context
-
Bay FCBay Football Club is an American professional soccer team based in the San Francisco Bay Area that competes in the National Women's Soccer League (NWSL). The team began play in the NWSL as an expansion team in the 2024 season. Their home stadium is PayPal Park in San Jose, California, a soccer-specific stadium with 18,000 seats that is also home to the San J
-
Bay of Pigs InvasionThe Bay of Pigs Invasion was a failed military landing operation on the southwestern coast of Cuba in April 1961 by the United States and the Cuban Democratic Revolutionary Front (DRF), consisting of Cuban exiles who opposed Fidel Castro's Cuban Revolution, clandestinely and directly financed by the U.S. government. The operation took place at the height of
-
Bay Area Rapid TransitBay Area Rapid Transit (BART) is a rapid transit system serving the San Francisco Bay Area in California. BART serves 50 stations along six routes and 131 miles of track, including eBART, a 9-mile (14 km) spur line running to Antioch, and Oakland Airport Connector, a 3-mile (4.8 km) automated guideway transit line serving Oakland San Francisco Bay Airport. W
-
Bay of BengalThe Bay of Bengal forms the northeastern part of the Indian Ocean, located between the Indian subcontinent and the Indochinese peninsula, south of the Bengal region. Spread across an area of 2,600,000 km2 (1,000,000 sq mi), it is bordered by many of the countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.nwslsoccer.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Bay FC vs. Chicago Stars FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.nwslsoccer.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Bay FC vs. Chicago Stars FC"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: