Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for May 16 at 4:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Philadelphia Phillies" if the Philadelphia Phillies win the game. This market will resolve to "Pittsburgh Pirates" if the Pittsburgh Pirates win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| NRFI | 39% YES | 62% NO |
The Philadelphia Phillies face the Pittsburgh Pirates on 16 May at 4:05 PM ET in a regular-season MLB matchup. The current 50-50 split on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty, with neither side commanding a clear edge in the market's pricing mechanism. This even probability suggests traders are weighing competing factors without consensus, a common state when both teams carry comparable recent form or when key variables remain unresolved.
Historically, Phillies-Pirates matchups show the Phillies as slight favourites in regular-season play, though the Pirates have proven capable of competitive performances. The current even odds diverge from typical season-long win-probability models, which would ordinarily favour Philadelphia given their recent divisional standing and roster composition. This departure warrants attention to whether the market is pricing in specific circumstances—injuries, bullpen availability, or recent performance trends—that shift the baseline expectation.
Traders should monitor roster announcements in the days preceding the fixture, particularly regarding starting pitcher assignments and any late-inning availability questions. Weather conditions at PNC Park can materially affect play, particularly wind direction affecting fly balls. Recent team performance, including streak dynamics and head-to-head records this season, will likely influence order book depth as the fixture approaches. The settlement window extends to 23 May, allowing for postponement scenarios should weather or other factors delay the original scheduled date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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