Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and Baltimore Orioles, scheduled for May 8 at 7:05PM ET: This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. This market will resolve to "Baltimore Orioles" if the Baltimore Orioles win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| NRFI | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 8.5 | — | |
| O/U 7.5 | — | |
| O/U 6.5 | — | |
| O/U 5.5 | — | |
| Spread -1.5 | — | |
| Spread -2.5 | — | |
The Oakland Athletics travel to Baltimore on 8 May for an American League matchup against the Orioles, with first pitch scheduled for 19:05 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for one outcome, indicating either extreme confidence in a particular result or illiquidity in the market structure itself. With the settlement window extending to 15 May 2026, traders have a week following the scheduled game date for final resolution against official MLB statistics.
Historical context suggests that pre-game probabilities of this magnitude typically reflect either significant roster disparities, recent performance trends, or thin liquidity on one side of the order book. The Athletics and Orioles have occupied different competitive positions in recent seasons, with Baltimore generally maintaining stronger win percentages. However, single-game outcomes in baseball carry inherent variance; teams with lower historical win rates still prevail in roughly one-third of matchups against stronger opponents, making extreme probability readings unusual unless driven by specific roster information.
Key variables affecting the outcome include starting pitcher assignments, recent injury reports, and weather conditions at Camden Yards on game day. Traders should monitor official MLB roster announcements and any late-breaking lineup changes through 8 May. The settlement mechanism allows for postponement without market closure, but cancellation without a make-up game would trigger a 50-50 split resolution. Current pricing warrants scrutiny regarding whether it reflects genuine predictive information or represents a liquidity imbalance in the order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$552K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $551K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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