Sports

Trade: New York Yankees vs. New York Mets

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and New York Mets, scheduled for May 16 at 7:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees win the game. This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$20K
Total Volume
—
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
—
Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

New York Yankees vs. New York Mets 56% YES44% NO
NRFI 51% YES49% NO

Market context

The New York Yankees face the New York Mets in an interleague matchup scheduled for 16 May at 7:15 PM ET at Citi Field. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 56% implied probability favouring a Yankees victory, suggesting moderate confidence in the visiting side despite playing in Queens. This probability has formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where the spread between bid and ask prices establishes the marginal probability at which the last trades executed.

Historically, the Yankees hold a substantial edge in head-to-head records against the Mets across their interleague history, winning roughly 55–60% of matchups since interleague play began in 1997. However, recent regular-season form matters considerably; the Mets' home-field advantage at Citi Field typically narrows the gap by 3–5 percentage points in implied probability terms. The current 56% figure sits within this expected range, suggesting the market is pricing in both the Yankees' structural advantage and the Mets' home-field benefit without significant skew.

Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, which typically occur 24–48 hours before game time and can shift probabilities by 5–10 points depending on recent performance metrics and injury status. Weather conditions at Citi Field—particularly wind direction and temperature affecting ball carry—warrant attention given the venue's sensitivity to atmospheric conditions. Any roster changes, bullpen availability updates, or unexpected injuries to key players in the days preceding the match will likely trigger repricing on the order book.

Wikipedia Context

  • New York Yankees award winners and league leaders

    This is a list of award winners and league leaders for the New York Yankees of Major League Baseball.

  • New York Yankees (NFL)
    New York Yankees (NFL)

    The New York Yankees were a short-lived professional American football team from 1926 to 1929. The team was a member of the first American Football League (AFL) in 1926, and later the National Football League (NFL) from 1927 to 1929. They played their home games at Yankee Stadium. The team featured Red Grange at halfback.

  • List of New York Yankees team records
    List of New York Yankees team records

    The New York Yankees are a professional baseball team based in the Bronx, New York. They compete in the East Division of Major League Baseball's (MLB) American League (AL). The club began play in 1903 as the Highlanders, after owners Frank Farrell and William S. Devery had bought the defunct Baltimore Orioles and moved the team to New York City; in 1913, the

  • List of New York Yankees seasons
    List of New York Yankees seasons

    The New York Yankees are a professional baseball team based in the Bronx, a borough of New York City. Also known as "the Bronx Bombers" and "the Pinstripers", the Yankees play in the East Division of Major League Baseball's (MLB) American League (AL). In its 123 MLB seasons, the franchise has won 27 World Series championships, the most of any MLB team and 16

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "New York Yankees vs. New York Mets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$0 in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "New York Yankees vs. New York Mets"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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