Trade: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals, scheduled for May 5 at 7:45PM ET: This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers win the game. This market will resolve to "St. Louis Cardinals" if the St. Louis Cardinals win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $7K
- Total Volume
- $85K
- 24h Volume
- $1K
- Open Interest
- $40K
Market outcomes
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals | 60% YES | 40% NO |
| NRFI | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| O/U 7.5 | 66% YES | 35% NO |
| O/U 8.5 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
Market context
The Milwaukee Brewers face the St. Louis Cardinals on 5 May at 7:45 PM ET in an NL Central matchup. The Polymarket order book currently reflects a 64% implied probability for a Brewers victory, suggesting moderate confidence in Milwaukee as the favoured side. This probability will shift as market participants update their positions based on incoming information through the settlement window closing on 12 May.
Historical matchups between these division rivals show competitive balance, though recent regular-season records and home-field advantage typically influence pricing. The Brewers' record against the Cardinals in the preceding season, combined with their overall win-loss trajectory heading into May, establishes a baseline for how traders are calibrating the current odds. Injuries to key roster players, bullpen depth, and recent offensive production trends have historically moved similar markets by 5–10 percentage points in either direction.
Traders should monitor roster announcements regarding starting pitchers, which often arrive 24–48 hours before game time and can materially shift the order book. Weather conditions at the venue, travel schedules, and any late-breaking injury reports will influence positioning. Recent performance data from both teams' May games—if available—provides concrete evidence of form that supersedes pre-season projections. The Cardinals' recent offensive output and the Brewers' pitching effectiveness in comparable matchups represent the primary catalysts likely to drive repricing before first pitch.
Wikipedia Context
-
Milwaukee BrewersThe Milwaukee Brewers are an American professional baseball team based in Milwaukee. The Brewers compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the Central Division of the National League (NL). The team's name alludes to the city's association with the brewing industry and has been used by several other baseball teams that have called Milwaukee h
-
Milwaukee Brewers minor league players
Below is a partial list of minor league baseball players in the Milwaukee Brewers system.
-
Milwaukee Brewers Wall of HonorThe Milwaukee Brewers Wall of Honor is an exhibit located at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, that commemorates baseball players, coaches, executives, and broadcasters who have made significant contributions to the Milwaukee Brewers Major League Baseball team and meet set criteria regarding career milestones or service time. The team was establ
-
Milwaukee Brewers (1902–1952)The Milwaukee Brewers were a minor league baseball team based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. They played in the American Association from 1902 through 1952. The 1944 and 1952 Brewers were recognized as being among the 100 greatest minor league teams of all time.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$85K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: