Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs, scheduled for May 18 at 7:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Milwaukee Brewers" if the Milwaukee Brewers win the game. This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| NRFI | 46% YES | 54% NO |
The Milwaukee Brewers travel to Chicago to face the Cubs on 18 May at 7:40PM ET in a National League Central divisional matchup. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 39% implied probability for a Brewers victory, suggesting the market favours the Cubs as home side. This probability has been formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where participants are pricing in available information about roster composition, recent form, and ballpark factors.
The Cubs hold a historical edge in this fixture, though divisional matchups typically exhibit tighter margins than the broader market suggests. Over the past three seasons, home teams in MLB have won approximately 54% of games, a baseline consideration when evaluating the 61% implied probability currently assigned to the Cubs. Recent performance trends matter considerably; as of mid-May, both teams' records, run differential, and pitching depth will have shifted from their season openers, affecting how informed traders are positioning.
Key catalysts include the confirmed starting pitchers for both sides, which typically emerge 24–48 hours before game time and can materially shift betting markets. Weather conditions at Wrigley Field—particularly wind direction and temperature affecting ball carry—represent another variable traders monitor. Injury updates to key position players or bullpen availability could trigger repricing on the order book. The settlement window extends to 25 May, allowing for postponement scenarios common in May baseball, though the market will remain open until completion.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 25 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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