Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Chicago Cubs and Texas Rangers, scheduled for May 10 at 2:35PM ET: This market will resolve to "Chicago Cubs" if the Chicago Cubs win the game. This market will resolve to "Texas Rangers" if the Texas Rangers win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| NRFI | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| O/U 8.5 | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| O/U 7.5 | 24% YES | 77% NO |
The Chicago Cubs travel to face the Texas Rangers on 10 May at 2:35 PM ET in an early-season MLB matchup. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 48% implied probability for a Cubs victory, suggesting near-parity between the two sides with a slight lean towards the Rangers. This probability emerges from real-time trading activity and represents the aggregated view of market participants pricing the outcome based on available information at settlement time on 17 May.
Historical matchups between these franchises provide limited predictive power for single-game outcomes, though seasonal trends matter considerably. The Cubs have shown volatility in recent seasons, whilst the Rangers, as defending World Series champions from 2023, enter 2025 with roster continuity and institutional confidence. Early-season form often diverges from preseason expectations, making May matchups particularly sensitive to injury reports, recent performance streaks, and bullpen availability rather than historical head-to-head records.
Traders should monitor starting pitcher announcements, which typically arrive 24–48 hours before game time and materially shift probabilities. Roster updates regarding key position players or relief arms warrant attention, as does weather at the Rangers' home venue, which can favour certain playing styles. Recent team performance in the days preceding 10 May will likely influence late trading activity, particularly if either side enters the game on a significant winning or losing streak. The settlement window extends to 17 May, allowing for postponement scenarios common in early-season baseball.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$497K in lifetime turnover and $165K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $496K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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