Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Circuito Desafiante (CD) 2026 Split 1. If the 2026 Split 1 is postponed after June 14, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Riot Games (https://lolesports.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Keyd Stars Academy | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Estral Esports | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| paiN Gaming Academy | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| KaBuM! IDL | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| RMD Gaming | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | — | |
| 7REX | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Team Solid | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Circuito Desafiante is the primary League of Legends esports competition in Latin America, with Split 1 of the 2026 season determining the first regional champion. The tournament typically runs from January through May, with the settlement window closing on 7 June 2026, allowing a fortnight buffer for final matches and official declaration. The 25% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty across the field of competing organisations, suggesting the market perceives no dominant favourite at this stage of the season.
Historical performance in regional esports tournaments shows that early-season probabilities often shift considerably as teams demonstrate form through actual competition. Previous Circuito Desafiante seasons have seen surprise contenders emerge from mid-table positions, whilst established organisations occasionally underperform due to roster changes or meta shifts. The current 25% probability indicates the market is pricing in a competitive field without a clear consensus pick, typical for regional tournaments where parity tends to be higher than in global competitions.
Traders should monitor Riot Games' official schedule announcements for any postponements or format changes that might affect the 14 June deadline. Roster announcements and pre-season scrimmage results, typically published in December 2025 and January 2026, will provide early signals about team strength. The meta evolution in patch cycles leading into the tournament will also influence which organisations possess strategic advantages, particularly regarding champion pools and playstyle alignment.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $51 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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