Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming La Liga game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between Elche CF and Deportivo Alavés.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Elche CF | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Deportivo Alavés | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Elche CF will face Deportivo Alavés in a La Liga fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026, near the end of the Spanish top-flight season. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or insufficient liquidity at current price levels; such readings typically indicate either a heavily skewed market view or sparse trading activity rather than genuine certainty about the match result.
La Liga matches in May involve teams with vastly different seasonal trajectories. Elche has historically occupied mid-to-lower table positions, whilst Alavés has shown greater consistency in recent campaigns, finishing in European qualification zones. The current probability formation suggests traders are pricing in either a decisive Alavés advantage or a draw as the most likely outcome, with Elche's win probability compressed to negligible levels. Historical fixture records between these clubs show competitive encounters, though recent form and league position at that stage of the season will be material to actual match dynamics.
Traders should monitor squad news through April and early May, including injury updates and any managerial changes at either club. Fixture congestion in the final weeks of the season may affect team selection and intensity. Polymarket's order book depth will determine whether meaningful liquidity emerges as the match date approaches; thin books at extreme probabilities often see sharp repricing once fresh capital enters or new information surfaces. Confirmation of final league standings and any remaining competitive stakes for either side will shape refined probability estimates closer to kick-off.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliga.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$565K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $534K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliga.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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