Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Anton Shepp and Arjun Mehrotra in the ITF Men Nakhon Pathom, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Anton Shepp' if Anton Shepp advances against Arjun Mehrotra. This market will resolve to 'Arjun Mehrotra' if Arjun Mehrotra advances against Anton Shepp. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Nakhon Pathom: Anton Shepp vs Arjun Mehrotra | 94% YES | 7% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Anton Shepp faces Arjun Mehrotra in the ITF Men's tournament at Nakhon Pathom, Thailand, with the match originally scheduled for 13 May 2026. The 94% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong backing for Shepp to advance from this first-round encounter. This probability has formed through active trading on the platform, where the current bid-ask spread reveals market participants pricing in a decisive outcome in Shepp's favour.
ITF Men's tournaments at this level typically feature significant disparities in player ranking and experience. Shepp's dominance in the market probability aligns with patterns seen in lower-tier professional tennis, where seeding and recent form often correlate strongly with match outcomes. Players competing in Thailand-based ITF events frequently show variable preparation levels, particularly around travel and acclimation, which can amplify expected outcomes when one competitor holds a clear advantage on paper.
Key catalysts for traders include confirmation of both players' arrival and participation status in the days preceding 13 May, as withdrawals or late scratches remain common in ITF circuits. Weather conditions in Nakhon Pathom during May—notably heat and humidity—may affect match duration and player performance, particularly if either competitor lacks recent hard-court experience in tropical conditions. Any official tournament updates or injury reports released before the settlement window closes on 21 May will provide material information, though the match's scheduled completion well before that deadline limits uncertainty around delayed resolution scenarios.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Nakhon Pathom: Anton Shepp vs Arjun Mehrotra" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $123 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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