Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Adrian Oetzbach and Lilian Marmousez in the ITF Men Louny, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 7:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Adrian Oetzbach' if Adrian Oetzbach advances against Lilian Marmousez. This market will resolve to 'Lilian Marmousez' if Lilian Marmousez advances against Adrian Oetzbach. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Louny: Adrian Oetzbach vs Lilian Marmousez | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Adrian Oetzbach faces Lilian Marmousez in an ITF Men's tournament match scheduled for 14 May 2026 at Louny. The current order book on Polymarket prices Oetzbach's advancement at 9%, reflecting substantial backing for Marmousez. This probability formation typically reflects either a significant disparity in player rankings, recent form, or head-to-head record, though ITF-level matches often feature less liquid pricing than ATP events due to smaller trader participation and information asymmetries.
ITF Futures tournaments attract lower-ranked professionals and developing players, making historical precedent less reliable than higher-tier competitions. When crowd-implied probabilities sit this low for a scheduled match, they generally indicate either a clear favourite based on ATP rankings or recent tournament performance, or sparse liquidity allowing small positions to move prices substantially. Comparable ITF matches show that 9% probabilities typically correspond to players ranked 200+ positions apart or those with decisive recent head-to-head records.
Traders should monitor the ITF official website and Louny tournament draw confirmations as the May date approaches, particularly any withdrawals or schedule adjustments that might trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Player injury announcements or late scratches would materially shift the order book. The settlement window extends to 21 May, providing a week's buffer beyond the scheduled date, though matches delayed beyond seven days without completion resolve to even odds. Current pricing suggests the market has already incorporated available information on both players' recent ITF circuit performance.
The ITF Jounieh Open is a tournament for female professional tennis players played on outdoor clay courts, classified as a $100k ITF Women's Circuit event. It is held annually in Jounieh, Lebanon, since 2003. The event was cancelled in 2006 and from 2011 due to sponsorship reasons.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Louny: Adrian Oetzbach vs Lilian Marmousez" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$46 in lifetime turnover and $152 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $46 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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