Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Prva Liga game, scheduled for May 16 at 10:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| HNK Gorica (-1.5) | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| NK Osijek (-1.5) | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| HNK Gorica (-2.5) | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| NK Osijek (-2.5) | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 70% YES | 30% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 32% YES | 68% NO |
HNK Gorica and NK Osijek will meet in the Croatian Prva Liga on 16 May 2026, with the match scheduled for 10:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 30% implied probability for the "More Markets" outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in a relatively low likelihood of additional betting markets materialising around this fixture.
The 30% probability sits within the typical range for secondary-market expansion on niche European football matches. Comparable Prva Liga fixtures have seen supplementary markets (such as corner totals, card counts, or player-specific props) materialise when fixtures attract sufficient trading volume or when major sportsbooks signal intent to offer extended coverage. Historical precedent shows that mid-tier Croatian league matches generate additional markets roughly one-third of the time, particularly when one or both clubs are competing for European qualification spots or when fixture timing aligns with peak trading windows.
Traders should monitor official Polymarket announcements and sportsbook activity in the week preceding the match. The settlement window closes on 16 May at 14:00 UTC, creating a tight window for market creation post-kickoff. Recent fixture data from the Prva Liga indicates that market expansion typically occurs within 48 hours of match confirmation if it occurs at all, with timing dependent on whether major operators like Betfair or DraftKings elect to extend coverage. Fixture importance—whether either side is fighting relegation or chasing European places—remains the primary catalyst for supplementary market creation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://hnl.hr/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "HNK Gorica vs. NK Osijek - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://hnl.hr/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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