Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Ligue 1 game, scheduled for May 13 at 3:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 84% YES | 16% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 64% YES | 36% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Both Teams to Score | 65% YES | 35% NO |
| Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) | 13% YES | 87% NO |
Racing Club de Lens will host Paris Saint-Germain in a Ligue 1 fixture on 13 May 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices this market at 13% implied probability, reflecting the substantial gap in squad quality and recent form between the two clubs. PSG, as the dominant force in French football with multiple Ligue 1 titles, typically command strong favourites status in such matchups, whilst Lens—a mid-table competitor—face long odds in direct encounters.
Historical context shows that PSG's away record against lower-ranked sides has been mixed, though they retain a significant statistical edge. Over the past three seasons, PSG have won approximately 70% of their away matches in Ligue 1, with draws accounting for roughly 20% of outcomes. Lens at home have secured results against top-six sides occasionally, but victories remain rare. The 13% probability on the order book reflects a baseline expectation that aligns with PSG's historical dominance in such fixtures, though it leaves room for the variance inherent in single-match outcomes.
Traders should monitor team news closer to the settlement window, particularly injury updates for PSG's key attacking players and any fixture congestion from European competitions. Lens's home advantage and motivation in a late-season match represent the primary catalysts that could shift the probability. Recent form in the weeks preceding 13 May will also influence how the order book reprices, as will any managerial or tactical adjustments either side announces.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ligue1.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$922 in lifetime turnover and $159K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $577 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ligue1.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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