Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Saturday, June 27, 2026 between Panama and England.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (Panama vs. England) | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| England | 66% YES | 35% NO |
| Panama | 13% YES | 87% NO |
England will face Panama in a group-stage match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 27 June. The current order book on Polymarket prices England's victory at 22 per cent implied probability, reflecting strong market consensus that Panama represents a significant underdog in this fixture. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC on match day, allowing traders to adjust positions until kickoff.
England's historical record against CONCACAF opposition provides context for interpreting the current odds. In World Cup competition, England has won all five previous matches against teams from the region, including victories over the United States (2–0, 1950) and Panama itself (6–1, 2018). Panama's sole World Cup appearance prior to 2026 ended with three consecutive defeats and a goal differential of −7. The 22 per cent probability assigned to a Panama win sits well below their baseline historical performance, suggesting the market is pricing in England's established superiority in this matchup.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates as the tournament approaches, particularly regarding England's defensive depth and Panama's attacking options. Fixture scheduling within the group stage may also influence team selection and motivation, depending on results in concurrent matches. Recent form in qualifying rounds and any managerial changes at either federation could shift expectations, though such developments typically move odds incrementally rather than dramatically for matches between sides of this calibre differential.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Panama vs. England" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$97 in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 27 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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