Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 2 at 2:45 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| O/U 2.5 | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| Wales (-1.5) | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Ghana (-1.5) | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Wales (-2.5) | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Ghana (-2.5) | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 62% YES | 39% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
Wales and Ghana are scheduled to meet in an international friendly fixture on 2 June 2026 at 2:45 PM ET. This represents a relatively low-stakes competitive encounter outside formal qualification or tournament windows, where both nations typically use such matches to evaluate squad depth, test tactical approaches, and maintain competitive rhythm during international breaks.
The 54% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects moderate confidence in additional markets materialising for this fixture. Historical precedent suggests that friendlies between nations with established football infrastructure—Wales competes in UEFA qualifying pathways whilst Ghana participates in CAF competitions—tend to attract secondary betting markets once primary matchups settle. The current probability formation indicates traders are pricing in a reasonable likelihood of supplementary markets (such as first goalscorer, total goals, or half-time/full-time combinations) being created before the settlement window closes on 2 June at 18:45 UTC, though this remains contingent on sufficient liquidity demand and platform operator decisions.
Key catalysts include fixture confirmation from both national football associations, squad announcements typically released 7–10 days before international matches, and any injury updates affecting key players. Traders should monitor official FIFA and respective federation communications for scheduling changes or cancellations. The timing of market creation often correlates with media coverage intensity and betting exchange activity; early confirmation of team sheets and starting lineups historically precedes secondary market launches. Polymarket's order book depth will signal whether traders expect meaningful volume in additional markets for this particular friendly.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Wales vs. Ghana - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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