Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between Sweden and Greece, scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Sweden | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Draw | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Greece | 49% YES | 51% NO |
Sweden and Greece meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 4 June 2026, with traders currently pricing a 49% probability that Sweden leads at halftime. The match kicks off at 1:00 PM ET, with settlement occurring at the conclusion of the first 45 minutes plus stoppage time. Polymarket's order book is currently reflecting balanced sentiment between a Swedish halftime advantage and alternative outcomes, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about early-match momentum.
Historically, Sweden has held a competitive edge over Greece in direct matchups, though friendly fixtures often produce atypical results compared to competitive tournaments. Greece's defensive structure has traditionally made them difficult to break down in opening periods, which may explain why the market has not priced a stronger home advantage despite Sweden's ranking and recent form. Comparable friendly matches between nations of similar calibre typically see halftime leads distributed across home, draw, and away outcomes with roughly equal frequency, though home-team advantages in the opening 45 minutes tend to materialise at slightly elevated rates.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and team news through early June, as injuries to key attacking or defensive personnel could shift halftime probabilities materially. Sweden's recent competitive schedule and Greece's preparation intensity leading into the match represent relevant catalysts. Weather conditions at the venue and any late tactical adjustments disclosed before kickoff may also influence how quickly either side establishes dominance. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on 4 June, providing a narrow window for final position adjustments once team sheets are confirmed.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Sweden vs. Greece - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $16 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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