Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Friday, June 5, 2026 between San Marino and Bangladesh.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| San Marino | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Draw (San Marino vs. Bangladesh) | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Bangladesh | 46% YES | 54% NO |
San Marino and Bangladesh are scheduled to play a FIFA International Friendly on Friday, 5 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome (San Marino victory) at 47%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the result despite San Marino's higher FIFA ranking. This probability has emerged from real-time trading activity rather than algorithmic pricing, suggesting traders are weighing both teams' recent form and structural advantages carefully.
San Marino currently ranks 210th in the FIFA world rankings, whilst Bangladesh sits at 184th. Historically, San Marino has won only two matches since 2012 and averages under 0.5 goals per game. Bangladesh, though lower-ranked, has shown modest improvement in recent Asian qualification campaigns and possesses a home-field advantage if the fixture is played in Dhaka. The 47% probability reflects this tension: San Marino's poor conversion rate and defensive vulnerabilities offset their marginally superior ranking, making the outcome genuinely competitive by prediction market standards.
Traders should monitor official fixture confirmations and venue announcements, as the location remains unconfirmed and could materially shift expectations. Squad availability in early June 2026—post-domestic season and potentially affected by club commitments—will influence team selection quality. Any late injury news or withdrawal of key players from either side could trigger order book repricing. The settlement window closes at 17:00 UTC on 5 June, leaving minimal time for post-match arbitrage.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "San Marino vs. Bangladesh" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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