Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Saturday, June 6, 2026 between Albania and Luxembourg.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Albania | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Draw (Albania vs. Luxembourg) | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Luxembourg | 47% YES | 54% NO |
Albania and Luxembourg are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on Saturday, 6 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 47% probability of an Albania victory, reflecting genuine uncertainty despite Albania's status as the higher-ranked side. This friendly fixture sits outside competitive qualification or tournament play, which typically produces more volatile and unpredictable outcomes than matches with direct sporting consequences.
Historically, Albania holds a modest advantage in the head-to-head record and FIFA ranking differential, though friendlies frequently deviate from ranking-based expectations. Luxembourg, ranked considerably lower, has occasionally produced competitive performances in low-stakes matches where tactical discipline and defensive organisation can neutralise superior opponents. The implied probability at 47% for Albania suggests the market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty—neither a dominant favourite nor an underdog scenario, but rather a competitive fixture where team selection, form, and preparation timing matter substantially.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates as the fixture approaches, particularly regarding key players for both nations. Friendly matches often see experimental lineups or rotation, especially if either side has concurrent club commitments or upcoming competitive fixtures. Recent UEFA Nations League or qualification campaign results for both teams may signal current form, though friendlies frequently feature different personnel and tactical approaches. The settlement window closes at 18:00 UTC on match day, allowing limited time for late-breaking team news to move the order book substantially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Albania vs. Luxembourg" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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