Trade: FedEx Cup Playoffs: Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 TOUR Championship tournament. If a listed player withdraws, is disqualified, does not participate or is eliminated from contention for the 2026 TOUR Championship tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the 2026 TOUR Championship tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $17K
- Total Volume
- $8K
- 24h Volume
- $231
- Open Interest
- $7K
Market outcomes
| Scottie Scheffler | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| Chris Gotterup | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Xander Schauffele | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Justin Rose | 3% YES | 98% NO |
| Russell Henley | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Nicolai Højgaard | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| Adam Scott | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| Gary Woodland | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Market context
The 2026 TOUR Championship will determine the FedEx Cup winner, with the tournament scheduled as the season finale of the PGA Tour's playoff structure. The event typically features the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings competing for the championship title and the substantial prize fund associated with winning. The 13% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a specific listed player's chances of victory, with the current market pricing formed by active trading between buyers and sellers on the platform.
Historical context suggests that TOUR Championship winners tend to cluster among the season's highest-performing players, given the field composition and the cumulative nature of FedEx Cup qualification. Recent champions have typically ranked within the top ten in season-long statistics, though upsets remain possible given the single-tournament format. The current 13% probability sits at a level consistent with players ranked outside the immediate favourites but still credible contenders—comparable to mid-tier odds seen in previous years for players with solid but not dominant season records.
Traders should monitor PGA Tour announcements regarding player eligibility, injury status, and any changes to the playoff format through 2026. Schedule confirmation and field composition details typically emerge in late summer preceding the championship. Performance trends during the regular season and earlier playoff events will provide crucial data for reassessing probabilities, as will any significant shifts in player form or ranking positions that affect seeding into the TOUR Championship itself.
Wikipedia Context
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FedEx Cup
The FedEx Cup is the championship trophy for the PGA Tour. Its introduction in 2007 marked the first time that men's professional golf had a playoff system. Since its inception, the competition has been sponsored by FedEx.
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PGA Tour Fall Series
The PGA Tour Fall Series was the name of the events on the PGA Tour that covered the end of the calendar year from 2007 to 2012 after the Tour Championship. Beginning in 2013, these events became part of the PGA Tour season, which from that point began to overlap two calendar years, beginning with the 2013–14 PGA Tour season.
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FedEx ExpressFedEx Express is an American cargo airline based in Memphis, Tennessee, United States. As of 2023, it was the world's largest cargo airline in terms of fleet size and freight tons flown. It is the namesake and leading subsidiary of FedEx Corporation, delivering freight and packages to more than 375 destinations over 220 countries and territories across six c
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FedEx Express Flight 80FedEx Express Flight 80 was a scheduled cargo flight from Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, China, to Narita International Airport, Japan, operated by FedEx Express. At 06:48 JST (UTC+09:00) on 23 March 2009, the McDonnell Douglas MD-11F registered N526FE operating the flight crashed while attempting a landing on Runway 34L in gusty and highly variable
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "FedEx Cup Playoffs: Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$8K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $231 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "FedEx Cup Playoffs: Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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