Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.” If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| McLaren | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Red Bull Racing | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Williams | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Aston Martin | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Audi | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Cadillac | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Mercedes | 74% YES | 27% NO |
| Ferrari | 6% YES | 95% NO |
The 2026 Formula 1 Constructors' Championship will be decided across a 24-race season, with points awarded to the top ten finishers in each Grand Prix. The constructor with the highest accumulated points at season's end claims the title. The current 16% implied probability reflects significant uncertainty about which team will dominate the technical regulations that take effect in 2026, particularly given the substantial power unit changes mandated for that season.
Historical precedent suggests that constructors' championships are often decided by mid-season or earlier, with dominant teams occasionally clinching with races remaining. Mercedes has won eight consecutive constructors' titles through 2024, whilst Red Bull's recent dominance in 2022–2023 demonstrates how quickly technical advantage can shift. The 2026 regulations reset—featuring new hybrid power units with increased electrical output and sustainable fuels—creates genuine uncertainty about which teams will execute the transition most effectively. Ferrari, McLaren, and Mercedes are all investing heavily in their 2026 programmes, but no team has yet demonstrated clear superiority under the new technical framework.
Traders should monitor winter testing data in early 2026, pre-season announcements regarding power unit performance, and early-season race results from the opening grands prix. Driver changes and team restructuring announcements through 2025 will also signal confidence levels. The FIA's technical directives and any mid-season regulation clarifications could substantially alter competitive balance. Reliability data from the new power units will prove critical, as mechanical failures have historically swung championships between closely matched competitors.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "F1 Constructors' Champion" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$17.0M in lifetime turnover and $834K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for formula1 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $287K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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