Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming La Liga 2 game between AD Ceuta FC and Málaga CF, scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 10:15 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the AD Ceuta FC vs. Málaga CF match originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 10:15 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market will be…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
AD Ceuta FC and Málaga CF will contest a La Liga 2 fixture on 16 May 2026, with settlement determined by the final score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 23% implied probability for the exact score outcome, suggesting traders view a specific scoreline as relatively unlikely compared to the "Any Other Score" catch-all category. This probability distribution typically emerges when multiple plausible results exist and no single scoreline dominates expected outcomes.
La Liga 2 matches historically produce a wide distribution of final scores, with draws and single-goal margins accounting for substantial portions of fixtures. Málaga CF, as a larger club with greater resources, would typically be favoured in head-to-head encounters, though Ceuta's home advantage at the Estadio Príncipe Abdullah could narrow that gap. Comparable exact-score markets in second-tier Spanish football have shown that outcomes clustering around 1–1, 1–0, and 2–1 results command higher probabilities than more emphatic scorelines, reflecting the competitive nature of the division.
Traders should monitor team news and injury reports as the fixture approaches, particularly regarding key attacking or defensive personnel for either side. Málaga's recent form and league position relative to Ceuta will influence expected goal output. Fixture congestion late in the season may affect squad rotation decisions, whilst weather conditions at Ceuta's ground on match day could impact playing style and scoring patterns. Any official postponement announcements would extend the settlement window accordingly.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliga.com/en-GB/laliga-hypermotion. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "AD Ceuta FC vs. Málaga CF - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliga.com/en-GB/laliga-hypermotion. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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