Trade: Aarhus GF vs. Viborg FF - Exact Score
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Denmark Superliga game between Aarhus GF and Viborg FF, scheduled for May 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the Aarhus GF vs. Viborg FF match originally scheduled for May 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market will…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $26K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
Market context
Aarhus GF will face Viborg FF in a Denmark Superliga fixture on 17 May 2026, with settlement determined by the final score after 90 minutes of regulation play plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 6% implied probability for the specified exact score outcome, indicating that traders view this particular result as unlikely relative to the broader distribution of possible final scores. This pricing emerges from the cumulative bids and asks across all listed scoreline options, with "Any Other Score" typically commanding substantial probability mass in exact-score markets where dozens of outcomes are possible.
Historical patterns in Danish Superliga matches show that exact-score predictions concentrate heavily on low-scoring results, particularly 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1 outcomes. These three scorelines typically account for 40–50% of cumulative probability in similar markets, whilst higher-scoring draws and victories become progressively less likely. The current 6% probability suggests the market is pricing this particular scoreline outside the modal cluster, consistent with how exact-score markets typically distribute probability across 20+ possible outcomes.
Traders should monitor team news regarding injuries and squad availability as the fixture approaches, alongside recent form data from both clubs' final matches of the 2025–26 season. Fixture congestion in the final weeks of the campaign may affect team selection and tactical approach. Weather conditions on match day and any late-season managerial changes could also influence scoring patterns, though such variables typically have modest impact on exact-score probabilities relative to the underlying quality differential between sides.
Wikipedia Context
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Aarhus GymnastikforeningAarhus Gymnastikforening is a professional sports club based in Aarhus, Jutland, Denmark. Founded in 1880, it is one of the oldest clubs in the country where gymnastics and fencing were featured as its main sports. However, AGF is mostly known for its football department, which was established in 1902. The club's first team plays in the Danish Superliga, the
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Aarhus HåndboldAarhus Håndbold was a handball club from Aarhus, Denmark. The club was founded in 2001 originally under the name Århus GF, as an extension of the traditional Aarhus clubs AGF, Brabrand IF, VRI and Århus KFUM/YMCA / Hasle. AGF chose in 2010 to withdraw from the superstructure, and the club was renamed from AGF Håndbold to Aarhus Håndbold. The home arena of Aa
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Aarhus UniversityAarhus University is a public research university. Its main campus is located in Aarhus, Denmark. It is the second largest and second oldest university in Denmark. The university is part of the Coimbra Group, the Guild, and Utrecht Network of European universities and is a member of the European University Association.
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Aarhus FremadAarhus Fremad is an association football club located in Aarhus N, the northern part of Aarhus, Denmark. The club competes in the Danish 1st Division, the second tier of the Danish football league system. Aarhus Fremad competed in the lower divisions of Danish football until 1997, when the club miraculously reached the Danish Superliga after nine promotions
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://superligaen.dk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Aarhus GF vs. Viborg FF - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://superligaen.dk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Aarhus GF vs. Viborg FF - Exact Score"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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