Trade: T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Samoa vs Vanuatu
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the cricket match between Samoa and Vanuatu scheduled for May 11 2026 in T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final. This market resolves according to the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $8K
- Total Volume
- $2K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Samoa vs Vanuatu | 81% YES | 19% NO |
| T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Samoa vs Vanuatu - Who wins the toss? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Samoa vs Vanuatu - Completed match? | 51% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
Samoa and Vanuatu will contest the regional final of the T20 World Cup East Asia-Pacific Qualifier on 11 May 2026, with the winner advancing to the global tournament. The current order book on Polymarket prices Samoa at 74% implied probability, reflecting their status as the stronger cricket nation in the matchup. Both teams have qualified for this stage through earlier rounds of the regional pathway, which feeds into the ICC's World Cup qualification structure.
Historical context suggests Samoa enters as favourites based on established playing strength within the East Asia-Pacific region. Vanuatu has made progress in recent qualifying cycles but faces a significant gap in match experience and player development infrastructure compared to Samoa. Previous regional qualifiers have typically seen higher-ranked nations advance when facing lower-ranked opponents in knockout stages, though upsets do occur when preparation and momentum align favourably for the underdog.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding squad selection and any last-minute injury updates in the weeks before 11 May. Weather conditions at the venue may influence match dynamics, particularly given the tropical climate of the region. The settlement window closes on 18 May, providing a two-week buffer for result confirmation via ESPNcricinfo. Any administrative delays in fixture confirmation or venue changes would represent material information affecting current pricing on the order book.
Wikipedia Context
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2009 World Twenty20The 2009 ICC World Twenty20 was the second edition of the Men's T20 World Cup, formerly known as the ICC World Twenty20 that took place in England in June 2009. As before, the tournament featured 12 male teams – nine of the ten Test-playing nations and three associate nations, which earned their places through a qualification tournament. ICC Full member Zimb
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2012 World Twenty20The 2012 ICC World Twenty20 was the fourth edition of the Men's T20 World Cup, formerly known as the ICC World Twenty20, an international Twenty20 cricket tournament that took place in Sri Lanka from 18 September to 7 October 2012 which was won by the West Indies. This was the first World Twenty20 tournament held in an Asian country, the last three having be
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The World's BillionairesThe World's Billionaires is an annual ranking of people who are billionaires, i.e., they are considered to have a net worth of US$1 billion or more, by the American business magazine Forbes. The list was first published in March 1987. The total net worth of each individual on the list is estimated and is cited in United States dollars, based on their documen
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The World Ends with YouThe World Ends with You is an action role-playing game co-developed by Square Enix and Jupiter for the Nintendo DS. Set in the modern-day Shibuya shopping district of Tokyo, The World Ends with You features a distinctive art style and urban fantasy elements inspired by Shibuya and its youth culture. Development was inspired by elements of Jupiter's previous
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Samoa vs Vanuatu" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$2K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "T20 World Cup, East Asia-Pacific Qualifier, Regional Final: Samoa vs Vanuatu"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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