Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Italy and Nepal scheduled for 2026-05-01 in T20 Challenge Trophy, Women. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Italy will be considered correct if Italy is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Nepal will be considered correct if Nepal is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITA | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| NPL | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Italy and Nepal will contest a women's T20 Challenge Trophy match on 1 May 2026, with this market requiring both the coin toss outcome and final match result to align for either nation. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial difficulty of predicting a dual outcome—a team must win the toss and then convert that advantage into a match victory. The settlement window closes on 8 May 2026, allowing time for official confirmation via ESPNcricinfo.
Comparable women's cricket fixtures between established and emerging nations show that toss-and-match doubles occur infrequently, typically in the 5–15% range depending on relative team strength and venue conditions. Italy's women's cricket programme remains developmental relative to Nepal's regional exposure, though both teams operate at similar competitive tiers within associate cricket. Historical data from T20 Challenge tournaments suggests that when probability sits at zero across major prediction markets, it often reflects either genuine uncertainty about team composition, late squad changes, or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing rather than certainty of non-occurrence.
Traders should monitor official squad announcements closer to the fixture date, as injuries or late withdrawals could shift assessments of either team's capability. Venue conditions at the scheduled location will influence both toss strategy and match dynamics. Any recent form data from qualifying rounds or warm-up matches will provide concrete reference points, though such information may emerge only days before play begins. The settlement depends entirely on official records, making ESPNcricinfo's publication the definitive source for resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "T20 Challenge Trophy, Women: Italy vs Nepal - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$403 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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