Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Saturday, May 16, 2026 between 1. FC Union Berlin and FC Augsburg.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1. FC Union Berlin | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Draw (1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg) | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| FC Augsburg | 40% YES | 61% NO |
Union Berlin will host Augsburg in a Bundesliga fixture on Saturday, 16 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Union victory at 38 per cent implied probability, reflecting moderate confidence in the home side. Settlement occurs at 13:30 UTC on match day.
Union Berlin's recent form and home record provide context for reading this probability. The club has established itself as a consistent mid-table performer in the Bundesliga, with a notably strong record at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Augsburg, similarly positioned in the league table, has shown variable away form. Historical head-to-head records between these sides suggest competitive matches with outcomes distributed across draws and narrow victories. The 38 per cent probability implies the market is pricing Union as slight favourites relative to a three-way outcome model, though not overwhelmingly so.
Traders should monitor team news in the fortnight preceding the fixture, particularly injury updates to key players that could shift tactical approaches. Bundesliga fixture congestion in May often affects squad rotation decisions, especially for clubs with European commitments or relegation battles elsewhere in the table. Weather conditions at the Berlin venue on match day—historically variable in May—can influence playing style. Any significant shifts in league standings or European qualification races for either club in the weeks before 16 May may alter motivation levels and squad selection, creating opportunities for probability reassessment on the order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1000 in lifetime turnover and $1.7M of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $895 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: