Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for Saturday, May 23, 2026 between EC Juventude and SC Recife.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| EC Juventude | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Draw (EC Juventude vs. SC Recife) | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| SC Recife | 34% YES | 67% NO |
EC Juventude will host SC Recife in a Brazil Serie B fixture on Saturday, 23 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 40% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the market prices this as a moderately competitive encounter with meaningful uncertainty around the result.
Juventude, based in Rio Grande do Sul, and Recife, from Pernambuco, occupy different positions within Serie B's competitive landscape. Historical matchups between clubs of similar tier and geography show volatility in outcomes, particularly when one side carries momentum from recent form or injury status. The 40% probability sits between a clear underdog and a coin-flip assessment, indicating traders are pricing in Juventude's home advantage whilst acknowledging Recife's capacity to compete or disrupt. Recent Serie B seasons have demonstrated that mid-table clubs can produce unexpected results, especially in May when fixture congestion and fatigue patterns become pronounced.
Traders should monitor team news in the fortnight preceding the match, including confirmed squad availability and any managerial changes. Recife's recent league position and points tally relative to Juventude will sharpen probability estimates as the settlement window approaches. Weather conditions in Rio Grande do Sul during late May and any fixture rescheduling announcements could shift the order book. The settlement deadline of 23 May at 23:30 UTC allows for post-match confirmation, though traders should verify the exact kick-off time to avoid settlement disputes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "EC Juventude vs. SC Recife" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: