Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for May 17 at 7:30 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ceará SC (-2.5) | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| Both Teams to Score | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Ceará SC (-1.5) | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Fortaleza EC (-1.5) | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| Fortaleza EC (-2.5) | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 64% YES | 36% NO |
Ceará SC and Fortaleza EC will meet in a Serie B fixture on 17 May 2026 at 19:30 ET. The market currently prices the "More Markets" outcome at 24% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting trader positioning ahead of the settlement window closure on 17 May at 23:30 UTC. This probability has formed through cumulative order flow, with the spread between bid and ask indicating the degree of conviction among market participants.
Ceará and Fortaleza are both established Northeastern clubs with histories in Brazil's top flight. Ceará has experienced relegation and promotion cycles, whilst Fortaleza has maintained more consistent top-division presence in recent years. The current 24% probability suggests traders view the "More Markets" condition as moderately unlikely relative to baseline expectations, though the exact settlement criteria determine whether this reflects genuine scarcity of additional betting options or structural market factors.
Key variables for traders include team news and injury updates, which typically emerge in the week preceding the match. Fixture scheduling changes, whilst uncommon in domestic league play, remain a technical dependency. The settlement window's five-day buffer before kickoff allows for late-breaking developments—managerial changes, disciplinary actions, or administrative decisions—that could alter market conditions. Monitoring official CBF communications and club announcements will be essential for assessing whether the current 24% pricing reflects available information or contains exploitable discrepancies.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ceará SC vs. Fortaleza EC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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