Trade: Granada vs. Barcelona
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Liga Endesa game, scheduled for May 13 at 3:00PM ET: If the Granada win, the market will resolve to "Granada". If the Barcelona win, the market will resolve to "Barcelona". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $644
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- —
Market outcomes
| Granada vs. Barcelona | 36% YES | 65% NO |
Market context
Granada and Barcelona will meet in Liga Endesa on 13 May at 3:00PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Granada's chances at 35%, reflecting a substantial underdog position. This probability emerges from the accumulated depth of bids and asks across the platform's order book, where traders are pricing in Barcelona's historical advantage in head-to-head matchups and their stronger league standing.
Barcelona has dominated the Liga Endesa landscape in recent seasons, winning multiple championships and maintaining consistent playoff appearances. Granada, whilst a competitive mid-table side, has historically struggled in direct encounters against the league's elite. The 35% implied probability aligns with historical win rates in similar matchups between these clubs, where Barcelona's superior roster depth and coaching infrastructure typically prevail. However, single-game variance remains substantial; Granada's home-court advantage (if applicable) and Barcelona's fixture congestion could shift outcomes materially.
Traders should monitor team news releases for injury confirmations in the fortnight before the match, particularly regarding key rotation players. Barcelona's participation in European competitions may affect squad rotation decisions. Recent form trends, available through Liga Endesa official standings, will clarify whether either side enters the fixture on a winning or losing streak. The settlement window closes 20 May at 19:00 UTC, allowing five days post-match for official result confirmation. Postponement risk exists but remains low given Liga Endesa's scheduling discipline; cancellation without rescheduling would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, though this outcome is historically rare.
Wikipedia Context
-
Gran Via (Barcelona)Gran Via is the second major business district of Barcelona, after Diagonal Mar. It forms part of the Fira de Barcelona, the second largest trade fair and exhibition centre in Europe. It straddles the borders between Barcelona, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat and El Prat de Llobregat. The Gran Via business centre consists of the following subdivisions: Gran Via, w
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.acb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Granada vs. Barcelona" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 36% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $278 if YES resolves true — a 178% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $644 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Granada vs. Barcelona"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 36%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.acb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Granada vs. Barcelona"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: