Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming LNB game, scheduled for April 25 at 7:30PM ET: If the Obras win, the market will resolve to "Obras". If the Instituto Cordoba win, the market will resolve to "Instituto Cordoba". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Obras vs. Instituto Cordoba | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Obras and Instituto Córdoba are scheduled to face off in an LNB (Liga Nacional de Básquet) fixture on 25 April at 7:30PM ET, with settlement occurring by 2 May. The current order book on Polymarket reflects zero probability for an Obras victory, suggesting either substantial backing for Instituto Córdoba or minimal trading activity establishing a floor price. This extreme positioning warrants scrutiny, as LNB matchups typically exhibit more balanced implied probabilities unless one side carries decisive recent form or injury news.
Instituto Córdoba has established itself as a stronger outfit in Argentine basketball's top tier, whilst Obras has struggled with consistency. Historical head-to-head records and recent season performance would normally anchor expectations, but the 0% probability on Obras suggests traders are either heavily confident in Instituto Córdoba's superiority or the market has received limited participation. LNB games rarely produce such skewed probabilities without underlying catalyst; comparable fixtures between mismatched sides typically settle between 15–35% for the weaker team.
Traders should monitor team announcements regarding player availability and any schedule changes through to settlement. Injuries to key rotational players, particularly for Instituto Córdoba, could shift the underlying match dynamics materially. The postponement clause extends the settlement window, so fixture confirmation closer to game day remains relevant. Current liquidity constraints on Polymarket's order book may explain the extreme probability; additional volume could rebalance pricing toward historical benchmarks.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.laliganacional.com.ar/laliga/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Obras vs. Instituto Cordoba" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$468 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.laliganacional.com.ar/laliga/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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