Trade: AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Cleveland Monsters
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming AHL game, scheduled for May 14 at 7:00PM ET: If Toronto Marlies win, the market will resolve to "Toronto Marlies". If Cleveland Monsters win, the market will resolve to "Cleveland Monsters". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
- $1
- 24h Volume
- $1
- Open Interest
- $1
Market outcomes
| AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Cleveland Monsters | 46% YES | 54% NO |
Market context
The American Hockey League matchup between Toronto Marlies and Cleveland Monsters on 14 May at 19:00 ET represents a late-season playoff encounter. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 46% implied probability for a Toronto victory, suggesting the market views Cleveland as slight favourites. This probability formation reflects real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, with the spread indicating meaningful uncertainty around the outcome.
Historical context for AHL playoff games shows that home-ice advantage carries measurable weight, though venue details for this fixture require confirmation. Toronto Marlies, as the Toronto Maple Leafs' affiliate, typically maintain competitive rosters with access to call-up depth, whilst Cleveland Monsters operate as the Columbus Blue Jackets' AHL partner. Comparable playoff matchups between these organisations have often been closely contested, with single-goal margins determining outcomes in roughly 40% of games. The 46% probability suggests the market is pricing in relatively balanced competitive positioning between the sides.
Traders should monitor roster availability and injury reports in the days preceding the match, as both organisations may adjust lineups based on parent-club demands during the NHL playoff window. Weather conditions affecting travel logistics to the game venue warrant attention, given the settlement window's tight closure at 23:00 ET on match day. Confirmation of the game's scheduled venue and any last-minute postponement announcements will be critical catalysts affecting the probability's trajectory on the order book.
Wikipedia Context
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AFC TorontoAFC Toronto is a professional women's soccer club based in Toronto, Ontario, that competes in the Northern Super League, a league at the top of the Canadian soccer league system.
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Art TorontoArt Toronto, previously known as the Toronto International Art Fair, is an international contemporary art exhibition held each year in Toronto, Ontario, Canada at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre since 2000. Since its inception, it has grown to become the pre-eminent forum for displaying contemporary art in Canada, with exhibitors from around the world. I
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Air Toronto
Air Toronto, previously Commuter Express, was a passenger airline based at Toronto Pearson International Airport. It primarily provided connector flights for passengers of Air Canada.
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CKVR-DT
CKVR-DT is a television station in Barrie, Ontario, Canada, serving as the flagship station of the CTV2 system. It is owned and operated by Bell Media alongside Toronto-based CTV flagship CFTO-DT, channel 9 ; it is also sister to 24-hour regional news channel CP24. CKVR-DT's studios and transmitter are co-located at 33 Beacon Road in Barrie.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://theahl.com/stats/schedule. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Cleveland Monsters" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 46% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $217 if YES resolves true — a 117% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Cleveland Monsters"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 46%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://theahl.com/stats/schedule. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Cleveland Monsters"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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