Sports

Trade: AHL: Laval Rocket vs. Toronto Marlies

100% YES 0% NO

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming AHL game, scheduled for May 5 at 7:00PM ET: If Laval Rocket win, the market will resolve to "Laval Rocket". If Toronto Marlies win, the market will resolve to "Toronto Marlies". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
—
Total Volume
$2K
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
$2K
Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

AHL: Laval Rocket vs. Toronto Marlies 100% YES0% NO

Market context

The Laval Rocket face the Toronto Marlies in an American Hockey League playoff contest on 5 May at 7:00 PM Eastern Time. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing this as a near-certain event. This extreme probability typically emerges when one outcome dominates market expectations, though such pricing occasionally reflects thin liquidity rather than genuine certainty.

Historical AHL playoff matchups between these franchises show competitive contests, with neither team commanding overwhelming regular-season advantages that would justify absolute certainty in any single game. The Marlies, as the Toronto Maple Leafs' affiliate, typically field a roster with NHL-adjacent talent depth, whilst Laval, the Montreal Canadiens' AHL partner, maintains comparable competitive standards. Playoff hockey introduces additional variance—injuries, goaltender performance, and momentum shifts frequently produce outcomes that defy pre-game expectations. The current 100% pricing warrants scrutiny against typical playoff game volatility.

Traders should monitor roster availability through to game time, particularly injury reports for key players on both sides. Schedule confirmations remain relevant given the settlement window extends to 5 May at 23:00 UTC, allowing for potential postponements. Recent AHL scheduling has occasionally faced disruptions, though May fixtures typically proceed as scheduled. Line movement on external sportsbooks and any late-breaking team announcements may signal shifting information before market close.

Wikipedia Context

  • AS Laval
    AS Laval

    Alliance Soccer Laval is a Canadian semi-professional soccer club based in Laval, Quebec that plays in Ligue1 Québec. In 2021, CS Monteuil merged with youth club CS Étoiles de l’Est to form AS Laval.

  • Al Lavan

    Alton Lavan was an American football player and coach. He served as the head football coach at Delaware State University from 2004 to 2010. Lavan was also as the interim head football coach at Eastern Michigan University for the final three games of the 2003 season, after replacing Jeff Woodruff. He played college football at Colorado State University and pr

  • Allal al-Fassi
    Allal al-Fassi

    Muhammad Allal al-Fassi was a Moroccan nationalist leader, politician, writer, poet, Pan-Arabist and Islamic scholar who was one of the early leaders of the Moroccan nationalist movement. He later became the president for life of the Istiqlal Party after independence representing it until his death in 1974. He served briefly as Minister of Islamic Affairs fr

  • Ahlam al-Nasr

    Ahlam al-Nasr is a Syrian Arabic poet, and known as "the Poetess of the Islamic State". Her first book of poetry, The Blaze of Truth, was published in 2014 and consists of 107 poems written in monorhyme. She is considered one of the Islamic State's most famous propagandists and gives detailed defenses of terrorist acts. Ahlam Al-Nasr is a nom de guerre meani

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://theahl.com/stats/schedule. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "AHL: Laval Rocket vs. Toronto Marlies" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "AHL: Laval Rocket vs. Toronto Marlies"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://theahl.com/stats/schedule. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "AHL: Laval Rocket vs. Toronto Marlies"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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