Trade: Solana above ___ on May 14?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $87K
- Total Volume
- $5K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $5K
Market outcomes
| 40 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 50 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 60 | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| 70 | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| 80 | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| 90 | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| 100 | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| 110 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
This market settles on Solana's noon ET price on 14 May 2026, using the one-minute candle close on Binance's SOL/USDT pair. The current 100% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that Solana will trade above the specified threshold at that precise moment. With over two years until settlement, the probability is being formed by minimal order book depth, typical of long-dated crypto markets where liquidity concentrates closer to expiration.
Solana's historical volatility provides context for evaluating such distant price predictions. The network has experienced multiple cycles of rapid appreciation and sharp corrections, with intraday moves of 5–15% not uncommon during periods of elevated trading activity. Comparable long-dated predictions on other major cryptocurrencies have generally reflected significant uncertainty, with probabilities rarely clustering at extremes unless the threshold is set substantially below or above prevailing spot prices. The 100% reading here suggests either the strike price is positioned well below current market expectations or order book activity remains too thin to establish meaningful price discovery.
Near-term catalysts affecting Solana include network upgrades, validator ecosystem developments, and regulatory announcements affecting the broader cryptocurrency market. The Solana Foundation's roadmap and any material changes to transaction throughput or ecosystem adoption metrics could influence longer-term price trajectories. Traders should monitor macro conditions, including Federal Reserve policy and institutional cryptocurrency adoption trends, which historically drive multi-year price movements across digital assets. Binance's operational status and any changes to SOL/USDT trading conditions would also affect settlement mechanics.
Wikipedia Context
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SolanaceaeSolanaceae, commonly known as the nightshades, is a family of flowering plants in the order Solanales. The family contains approximately 2,700 species, several of which are used as agricultural crops, medicinal plants, and ornamental plants. Many members of the family have high alkaloid contents, making some highly toxic, but many—such as tomatoes, potatoes,
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Valerie SolanasValerie Jean Solanas was an American radical feminist known for the attempted assassination of artist Andy Warhol in 1968.
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Solana SierraSolana Sierra is an Argentine tennis player. She has a career-high WTA singles ranking of No. 63, achieved on 19 January 2026. She is the current No. 1 Argentine singles player.
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Solana Beach, CaliforniaSolana Beach is a beach city in San Diego County, California, on the South Coast. Its population was at 12,940 at the 2020 U.S. census, up from 12,867 at the 2010 census.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Solana above ___ on May 14?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$5K in lifetime turnover and $87K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for solana contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Solana above ___ on May 14?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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