Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team achieves promotion from Serie B to Serie A for the 2026–27 season at the conclusion of the 2025-2026 league season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Official promotion is defined as a team clinching a place in Serie A for the 2026–27 season through their final standing in the Serie B, via playoff victory, or by any other official league decision recognized by Serie A and Serie B. If the 2025-2026 Serie B season is cancelled, postponed after June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for promotion within that timeframe, the corresponding market will “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bari | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Catanzaro | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Empoli | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Juve Stabia | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Modena | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Padova | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Pescara | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Sampdoria | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The 2025–26 Serie B season will determine which teams earn promotion to Italy's top flight for the 2026–27 campaign. Typically, the top two finishers secure automatic promotion, whilst teams finishing third through eighth compete in playoff rounds for the third promotion spot. The settlement window closes on 31 May 2026, allowing time for the regular season and playoff structure to conclude. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either a specific team with negligible historical promotion prospects or a market with insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing; the current bid-ask spread likely shows minimal trading activity, with no counterparty willing to price upside risk.
Serie B promotion outcomes depend heavily on squad composition, managerial stability, and financial resources. Historical precedent shows that clubs with consistent investment and experienced coaching staff—such as Parma, Brescia, and Benevento—have cycled between Serie A and B multiple times. Teams relegated from Serie A typically command stronger odds due to superior infrastructure and player retention. The 2024–25 season saw Parma and Como secure promotion; comparable clubs in the current cycle will face similar competitive dynamics.
Traders should monitor January transfer windows, managerial changes, and injury developments affecting key players through spring 2026. Official Serie B standings updates and playoff bracket confirmations will provide concrete data points. Any administrative decisions by Lega Serie B regarding league structure or promotion places could alter settlement conditions materially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Serie B: Team promoted to Serie A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$53K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $706 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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