Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Peru Liga 1 game between CD Comerciantes Unidos and FBC Melgar, scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 4:15 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. FBC Melgar match originally scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 4:15 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
CD Comerciantes Unidos will host FBC Melgar in Peru's Liga 1 on 10 May 2026 at 4:15 PM ET. The market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with any unmatched outcome settling as "Any Other Score." The 0% implied probability across Polymarket's order book reflects the fragmented nature of exact-score markets; liquidity typically concentrates on broader outcomes like match winner or over/under goals, leaving specific scorelines with minimal trading activity and wide bid-ask spreads.
Comerciantes Unidos and Melgar occupy different tiers within Peruvian football. Melgar, based in Arequipa, has historically been a stronger Liga 1 side with continental competition experience, whilst Comerciantes Unidos operates as a mid-table competitor. Historical head-to-head records and recent form divergences suggest Melgar enters as favourite, though exact-score prediction remains inherently difficult given the variance in football outcomes. Comparable exact-score markets in lower-liquidity leagues show that even heavily favoured teams rarely command more than 15–20% probability on any single scoreline.
Traders should monitor team news closer to the fixture date, particularly injury updates and squad rotation patterns typical of May fixtures in South American leagues. Fixture congestion in Liga 1's calendar and any continental commitments for either side could affect starting lineups. Weather conditions in Arequipa and potential pitch factors may also influence goal-scoring patterns. Current zero probability reflects absent market makers rather than fundamental certainty; liquidity injection and late-stage position-building often reshape exact-score odds substantially in the final trading hours.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://liga1.pe/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. FBC Melgar - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$200 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $200 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://liga1.pe/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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