Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a market to predict whether Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner wins more Grand Slam championships in 2026. If Carlos Alcaraz wins more Grand Slams in 2026 than Jannik Sinner, this market will resolve to “Alcaraz”. If Jannik Sinner wins more Grand Slams in 2026 than Carlos Alcaraz, this market will resolve to “Sinner”. If Alcaraz and Sinner win the same amount of Grand Slams in 2026, this market will resolve 50-50. Only victories in Men’s Singles Grand Slam tournaments will be considered for this market’s resolution. The relevant 2026 Grand Slams are the Men’s Singles tournaments in the 2026 Australian Open, French Open, U.S. Open, and Wimbledon.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? | 41% YES | 60% NO |
The 2026 Grand Slam season will determine whether Carlos Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner claims more major titles across the four tournaments: Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, and US Open. The market currently prices Sinner's chances at 40% on Polymarket's order book, implying Alcaraz holds a 60% edge. This probability reflects their respective trajectories heading into 2026, with settlement contingent on final Grand Slam counts by 13 September 2026.
Alcaraz's historical dominance in majors provides context for the current pricing. Since breaking through in 2022, he has won four Grand Slams (US Open 2022, Wimbledon 2023, Roland Garros 2024, Wimbledon 2024), establishing himself as the tour's most consistent major champion. Sinner, by contrast, has won two Grand Slams (Australian Open 2024, Australian Open 2025), though his ascent has been notably rapid. The 60-40 split reflects Alcaraz's proven ability to win multiple majors within a calendar year—he claimed two in 2024—against Sinner's emerging but less-tested consistency at the highest level.
Key variables for traders include injury status for both players, particularly Alcaraz's recent wrist concerns and Sinner's ongoing doping case implications for ranking points and tournament access. The Australian Open in January 2026 will provide the first major data point, whilst the French Open surface historically favours Alcaraz. Sinner's performance at hard courts, where he has shown strength, will be critical given the Australian Open and US Open weighting in the calendar. Any significant ranking shifts or tour suspensions could materially alter the probability formation on the order book.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sinner contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 41%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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