Trade: Serie A - Top Goalscorer
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Serie A season. If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Serie A season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Only goals scored in Serie A matches will count. Goals scored in other competitions (e.g., Coppa Italia, Champions League, Europa League, international matches) will not count for this market. If multiple players tie for the top goal scorer, the market will resolve to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $17K
- Total Volume
- $98K
- 24h Volume
- $39
- Open Interest
- $8K
Market outcomes
| Lautaro Martinez | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| Dusan Vlahovic | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Lorenzo Lucca | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Assane Diao | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Rafael Leao | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Player B | — | |
| Player G | — | |
| Player L | — | |
Market context
The 2025–26 Serie A season will conclude on 28 May 2026, at which point a single player will be crowned the league's top goalscorer. The market currently reflects a 98% implied probability, suggesting the order book has priced in a heavily favoured outcome. This probability is formed through active trading on Polymarket's order book, where participants are pricing the likelihood that a specific player finishes as the sole leading scorer across all 38 Serie A matches. Goals in other competitions—Coppa Italia, European tournaments, and international fixtures—do not count toward this tally.
Historically, Serie A's top goalscorer title has been contested by elite strikers from Juventus, Inter, and Napoli, with individual seasons often producing clear leaders rather than ties. When ties do occur, the alphabetical tiebreaker rule applies. The current 98% probability suggests traders have identified a player with exceptional form, injury resilience, or playing circumstances that make him a near-certain frontrunner. This level of certainty typically emerges when a player has already accumulated a substantial goal haul early in the season or when structural factors—such as team dominance or penalty-taking duties—create a decisive advantage.
Traders should monitor January transfer activity, as mid-season arrivals or departures of key strikers could shift goal-scoring distribution. Injury updates for the favoured player and competing forwards warrant close attention through the spring months. Fixture congestion and rotation patterns in the final weeks of the season may also influence goal tallies, particularly for players at clubs competing in European competitions.
Wikipedia Context
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CapocannoniereThe capocannoniere award, known as Paolo Rossi Award since 2021, is awarded by the Italian Footballers' Association (AIC) to the highest goalscorer of each season in Italy's Serie A. From the 2010–11 season until the change of denomination, it was called the AIC Award to the Top Scorer. The award is currently held by Mateo Retegui, who scored 25 goals for At
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Serie A Player of the MonthThe Serie A Player of the Month, officially known as the EA Sports FC Player of the Month for sponsorship reasons, is an association football award that recognises the best player each month in Serie A, the top tier of the Italian football league system. The winner is chosen by an online public vote, in which voters choose from five nominees. The nominees ar
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Serie Monumental
The Serie Monumental was an international club baseball tournament held in Venezuela in late 1945–46. It saw a team of all-stars from the American Negro leagues play their opposites in the Venezuelan League. The series, played only once, was the immediate precursor to the 1946–50 Interamerican Series, and by extension, to the modern Caribbean Series.
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Seriatopora hystrixSeriatopora hystrix is a species of colonial stony coral in the family Pocilloporidae. It forms a branching clump and is commonly known as thin birdsnest coral. It grows in shallow water on fore-reef slopes or in sheltered lagoons, the type locality being the Fiji Islands. It is native to East Africa, the Red Sea and the western Indo-Pacific region. It is a
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Serie A - Top Goalscorer" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$98K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for serie a contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $39 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Serie A - Top Goalscorer "?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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