Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Fetterman leaves the Democrats by June 30? | 6% YES | 95% NO |
John Fetterman, Pennsylvania's junior senator and a Democrat, would need to formally announce his departure from the Democratic Party or take official action to leave it by 30 June 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 6% implied probability, reflecting trader assessment that such a move remains unlikely within the specified timeframe.
Fetterman's political positioning offers limited historical precedent for party switching at this stage of his career. He won his 2022 Senate race as a Democrat with substantial margins and has served less than two years into a six-year term. Recent comparable cases—such as Kyrsten Sinema's 2024 switch to independent status or Joe Lieberman's 2004 independent run—typically occur when senators face significant intra-party pressure or shifting constituent demands. Fetterman has faced occasional criticism from progressive Democrats over certain votes, but polling data and public statements suggest he maintains core Democratic support in Pennsylvania.
Traders monitoring this market should track Fetterman's public statements regarding party affiliation, any major legislative conflicts with Democratic leadership, and Pennsylvania political developments that might shift his calculus. His health status, which prompted a 2022 campaign hiatus, remains a variable affecting his political trajectory. The 18-month settlement window provides substantial time for unexpected developments, though the current 6% probability reflects the baseline expectation that formal party departure remains a low-probability event absent dramatic intervening circumstances.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Fetterman leaves the Democrats by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for senate elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $190 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 6%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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