Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ≤3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 7 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 9 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 4 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 6 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 8 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| >9 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Between 4 and 10 May 2026, this market tracks whether Earth experiences one or more earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program serves as the authoritative resolution source, capturing all seismic events globally that meet the magnitude threshold during the seven-day window. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability, suggesting traders are pricing near-zero likelihood of such an event occurring in this specific week.
Historical seismic data indicates that earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or above occur with considerable frequency globally. The USGS records approximately 134 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5–6.0 annually, with higher magnitudes occurring less frequently. Over any given seven-day period, the baseline expectation would typically be around 2.6 events of this magnitude somewhere on Earth. The current market pricing appears disconnected from long-term seismic frequency distributions, suggesting either illiquidity in the order book or a specific interpretation of the settlement mechanics.
Traders should monitor seismic activity reports from the USGS in real time, as significant earthquakes are typically catalogued within hours of occurrence. The resolution window closes 10 May 2026 at midnight UTC, after which the final count becomes fixed. Any substantial seismic event during the period—whether in active zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire or less predictable regions—would immediately alter the market's outcome. The wide disparity between historical earthquake frequency and current market pricing creates potential asymmetry for traders evaluating the underlying probabilities.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$147K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for science contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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