Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on Fervo Energy's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 13 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $5.5B–$7.0B | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| $8.5B–$10.0B | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| No IPO before July 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| <$5.5B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $7.0B–$8.5B | 78% YES | 22% NO |
| $10.0B+ | 8% YES | 93% NO |
Fervo Energy, a geothermal energy company backed by venture capital including Breakthrough Energy Ventures, is preparing for an initial public offering scheduled to price on 13 May 2026. The market will settle based on the company's market capitalisation at the closing price on its first trading day, with resolution contingent on the IPO occurring by 30 June 2026. The 45% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects uncertainty around both whether the offering will proceed as scheduled and, if it does, what valuation the market will assign.
Comparable recent energy infrastructure IPOs provide context for interpreting current pricing. NextEra Energy's renewable subsidiary NEP priced at $26 per share in 2021 and opened at $27.50, whilst Brookfield Renewable Partners has traded at valuations reflecting 8–12x forward cash flows. Geothermal-focused peers remain limited in the public markets, but the sector has attracted institutional capital amid decarbonisation mandates. The current 45% probability suggests meaningful execution risk or valuation uncertainty rather than consensus scepticism about the IPO occurring.
Traders should monitor Fervo's SEC filings for updated financial guidance and pricing range, typically released two weeks before the offering date. Market conditions for equity issuance—particularly interest rate expectations and renewable energy sector sentiment—will influence both the likelihood of proceeding and opening-day valuation. Any delays to the May pricing schedule or material changes to the company's operational metrics would significantly alter the probability distribution across possible closing market caps.
Fervo Energy is a geothermal company based in Houston, Texas, that generates electricity through enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Fervo Energy was co-founded in 2017 by CEO Tim Latimer, a mechanical engineer who worked as a drilling engineer at BHP until 2015, and CTO Jack Norbeck.
The Fermi energy is a concept in quantum mechanics usually referring to the energy difference between the highest and lowest occupied single-particle states in a quantum system of non-interacting fermions at absolute zero temperature. In a Fermi gas, the lowest occupied state is taken to have zero kinetic energy, whereas in a metal, the lowest occupied state
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Fervo Energy IPO Closing Market Cap" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$35K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for rewards 200 4pt5 20 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $35K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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