Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market resolves based on whether Hyperliquid's price on Chainlink's HYPE/USD data stream moves upward or remains flat during a five-minute window on 4 May between 4:15AM and 4:20AM ET. The settlement uses Chainlink's oracle feed rather than spot exchange prices, which can occasionally diverge during low-liquidity periods. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects extreme bearish positioning, suggesting traders are pricing in either a price decline or flat movement as near-certain within this specific five-minute interval.
Short-window price movements of this duration typically exhibit minimal directional bias absent scheduled catalysts. Historical precedent from similar five-minute cryptocurrency windows shows that without major news releases or liquidation cascades, prices tend toward consolidation rather than decisive moves. The 4:15AM ET timestamp falls outside major US market hours and Asian market close, reducing the likelihood of coordinated volume spikes that might drive directional movement. Chainlink's data feed updates at regular intervals, and any discrepancy between spot prices and the oracle feed during illiquid periods could theoretically create arbitrage opportunities, though these typically resolve within minutes.
Traders should monitor whether any Hyperliquid protocol updates, exchange listings, or broader cryptocurrency market movements occur in the hours preceding the settlement window. Recent volatility in Bitcoin and Ethereum during early-morning hours has occasionally triggered cascading liquidations on leveraged platforms, though Hyperliquid's specific market conditions at 4:15AM ET would determine whether such pressure materialises. The current 0% probability suggests the market is pricing in downward pressure or consolidation as the base case.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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