Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market captures whether BNB's price on the Chainlink data feed will be higher or equal at 7:40PM ET on 7 May 2026 compared to its level at 7:35PM ET that same evening. The five-minute window is narrow enough that directional moves depend heavily on intraday volatility and order flow rather than fundamental shifts. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extremely tight liquidity at the ask side or a consensus view that upside is heavily favoured over a minor decline in this specific five-minute slice.
Five-minute price intervals for major cryptocurrencies typically resolve to "Up" roughly 50–52% of the time historically, as they're largely determined by microstructure noise and bid-ask dynamics rather than information arrival. The 100% probability here is unusual and suggests either minimal liquidity depth in the order book, with traders unwilling to lay against "Up" at reasonable odds, or a specific catalyst expected during or immediately before the window. Such extreme probabilities on short-duration crypto markets often compress sharply once additional traders enter the book.
Traders should monitor BNB's spot price action on major exchanges and any scheduled announcements from Binance or broader crypto market moves in the hours leading up to the window. Chainlink's BNB/USD feed aggregates data from multiple sources, so any divergence between spot markets or a flash event on one exchange could influence the settlement price. Volatility clustering in crypto markets means that if BNB experiences elevated trading volume or news-driven movement earlier on 7 May, the probability of a five-minute directional move will shift materially from current levels.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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