Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-233 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Colin Allred | 82% YES | 19% NO |
| Carlos Quintanilla | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate F | — | |
| Candidate H | — | |
| Candidate J | — | |
| Candidate L | — | |
Texas's 33rd congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 3 March 2026 to select the party's nominee for the general election. The current order book on Polymarket implies an 82% probability that a Democratic nominee will be successfully announced by the settlement deadline of 26 May 2026. This probability reflects confidence that the primary process will proceed without significant disruption and that a clear winner will emerge from the field.
Historical precedent suggests Democratic primaries in Texas's urban-leaning districts typically produce nominees without extended delays or contested conventions. The 33rd district, which encompasses parts of the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, has seen competitive Democratic contests in recent cycles, with nominees usually confirmed within weeks of primary voting. The 18% tail risk priced into the market likely accounts for scenarios including a fractured field requiring runoff procedures, withdrawal of all candidates, or unforeseen procedural complications that delay nomination beyond the November deadline.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements through late 2025 and early 2026, particularly regarding field size and establishment backing. The Texas Democratic Party's official candidate filing deadlines and any guidance on runoff thresholds will clarify the mechanics governing nomination. Recent reporting on Democratic recruitment efforts in competitive Texas districts will indicate the party's investment in the seat. Any significant candidate withdrawals, health issues, or legal complications affecting frontrunners could shift probabilities materially, as would unexpected changes to state primary law or Democratic Party rules governing nomination procedures.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "TX-33 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$73K in lifetime turnover and $23K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for primaries contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $205 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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