Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of XMAQUINA's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by XMAQUINA will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $10M | 95% YES | 6% NO |
| $40M | 84% YES | 17% NO |
| $80M | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| $150M | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| $300M | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| $800M | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| $20M | 92% YES | 9% NO |
| $60M | 70% YES | 31% NO |
XMAQUINA is preparing to launch a native token, with the market assessing whether its fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of going live. The FDV calculation uses total token supply multiplied by the initial trading price, measured at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch. Only an officially issued token qualifies; stablecoins, memecoins, liquid staking tokens and synthetics are excluded. The token must be actively tradable on public markets for the launch to count toward resolution.
The 95% implied probability reflects confidence in a successful token launch and initial price discovery above the threshold. Historical precedent suggests most well-capitalised projects clear modest FDV targets on day one, particularly when launch timing and supply mechanics are publicly disclosed beforehand. Early trading often exhibits elevated volatility and thin order books, which can produce outsized price movements relative to longer-term valuations. Projects with established communities and clear tokenomics typically see smoother launches than those with opaque distribution or governance structures.
Key catalysts include any official announcement of launch timing, token supply details and exchange listings. Traders should monitor XMAQUINA's communications channels and exchange partnerships, as listing decisions directly influence liquidity and price discovery on day one. Market conditions on the launch date itself—particularly broader cryptocurrency sentiment and competing token events—will shape initial trading dynamics. The settlement window extends to 1 January 2028, allowing considerable time for launch execution, though earlier resolution is possible if the token goes live sooner.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "XMAQUINA FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$510 in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pre market contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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