Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the named people who attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding. If no wedding between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". the resolution source for this market will be photographic or video evidence of the event, or by statements from Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, the attendee, or their legal or social media representatives. Only physical attendance of the event will qualify; virtual attendance or confirmation of an invitation will not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Danielle Haim | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Phoebe Bridgers | 65% YES | 36% NO |
| Jared Goff | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| Andrew Tate | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Jack Antonoff | 94% YES | 7% NO |
| Gracie Abrams | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| Patrick Mahomes | 86% YES | 14% NO |
| Alana Haim | 78% YES | 22% NO |
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce have been publicly dating since September 2023, with their relationship gaining significant media attention through Kelce's NFL season and Swift's Eras Tour. The pair have made joint public appearances at NFL games, award shows, and international events. A wedding between the two would represent one of the most high-profile celebrity unions in recent years, drawing substantial global media coverage and attendance from entertainment and sports industries alike.
Historical precedent suggests celebrity weddings of comparable magnitude—such as those involving A-list musicians and prominent athletes—typically occur within two to four years of public relationship confirmation. The current 76% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects trader assessment that a wedding is more likely than not to occur by the December 2026 deadline, though meaningful uncertainty persists. Similar markets on high-profile celebrity relationships have historically shown volatility around engagement announcements and public statements from the principals themselves.
Key catalysts traders should monitor include any official engagement announcement from either Swift or Kelce, public statements regarding marriage intentions, and scheduling developments around Swift's touring commitments and Kelce's NFL career trajectory. The NFL off-season and Swift's tour schedule will significantly influence timing feasibility. Recent reporting from entertainment outlets has noted the couple's continued public appearances together, though neither party has made explicit statements about marriage plans. Resolution will depend on photographic, video, or official statement evidence of physical attendance at a confirmed wedding ceremony.
Alton Desbrisay Taylor was a Canadian politician. He served in the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick as member of the Conservative party representing Sunbury County from 1925 to 1935.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will attend Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's wedding?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$253K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $37 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: