Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the male name ranked #1 in the U.S. Social Security Administration’s (SSA) official list of popular baby names for 2025, published on the SSA website: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/babynames/. The authoritative source is the SSA’s “Popular Names by Birth Year” tool. To view the relevant "Male name" list, set the Birth Year to 2025. This market may resolve as soon as the SSA releases its 2025 name data for the specified year. If none of the listed options is ranked #1 or if the SSA does not release the 2025 rankings by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Liam | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Noah | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Oliver | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Theodore | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| James | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Henry | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Mateo | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Elijah | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Social Security Administration will publish its official ranking of the most popular baby boy names in the United States for 2025, with the top-ranked name determining this market's resolution. The SSA releases this data annually based on administrative records from birth certificates, making it an objective, verifiable outcome. The settlement window extends to 31 December 2025, though the SSA typically publishes preliminary rankings in May or June of the following year, potentially allowing early resolution.
Historical naming trends show remarkable persistence at the top of the SSA rankings. Liam has held the #1 position since 2016, with Noah, Oliver, Elijah and James consistently occupying the top five slots across recent years. The current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES reflects high confidence that one of the listed options will rank first, which aligns with the stability of elite naming preferences. However, this certainty also suggests limited arbitrage opportunity on Polymarket's order book unless new cultural or demographic shifts emerge.
Traders should monitor cultural catalysts through 2025, including celebrity baby name announcements and trending social media discussions around naming conventions. The SSA's release schedule remains the critical dependency—if the administration delays publication beyond 30 June 2026, the market faces potential non-resolution. The market's current pricing leaves minimal room for conviction trades, indicating the crowd views top-tier name dominance as nearly certain to continue.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Most popular boy name 2025" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$922K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $9K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2025. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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