Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under “Paid Apps”, as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click “Apps” at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to “Top Paid Apps” and click “See All.” Then under “Paid Apps” in the “Top Charts” section, you’ll see the list that will be used as the resolution source for this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/iphone/charts/36?chart=top-paid).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| HotSchedules | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Procreate Pocket | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ye said | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| SkyView | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| App B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| App D | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| App F | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| App H | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market concerns which application will occupy the top position in Apple's US iPhone App Store paid apps ranking on 5 May 2026. This ranking reflects genuine consumer purchasing behaviour, as users must pay upfront to download these applications rather than accessing free alternatives. The current 0% implied probability suggests the order book perceives substantial uncertainty about which specific app will lead this chart on that particular date, or that traders expect an incumbent favourite to retain its position with near-certainty.
Historical paid app rankings have been dominated by productivity, gaming, and utility categories. Apps like Minecraft, Procreate, and various photo editing tools have held top positions for extended periods, though rankings can shift when major releases occur or when seasonal demand patterns emerge. The paid apps segment differs markedly from free rankings, as it reflects deliberate consumer investment rather than casual downloads. Examining the current top-paid list provides baseline context: the same applications often maintain rankings for months, suggesting stability rather than volatility in this particular chart segment.
Traders should monitor major app releases scheduled for early 2026, particularly gaming launches or productivity software updates that might drive purchasing surges. Apple's own announcements regarding iOS features or hardware releases can influence app store dynamics. The specific timing—early May—falls outside major seasonal shopping periods, which historically favour Q4 releases. Any significant price changes, promotional campaigns, or viral adoption of emerging applications would represent material catalysts. The settlement date's proximity to current market conditions means historical performance of existing top-paid apps provides the most reliable predictive framework.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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