Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Palantir is estimated to release earnings on May 4, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Palantir’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.28 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Palantir reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.28 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Palantir releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Palantir (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Palantir Technologies is scheduled to report first-quarter 2026 earnings on 4 May, with the Street consensus targeting non-GAAP EPS of $0.28. The market will resolve affirmatively if reported non-GAAP earnings exceed this consensus figure, using the company's official earnings documents as the settlement source. The current Polymarket order book is pricing this outcome at 100% implied probability, suggesting traders view a beat as nearly certain given Palantir's recent operational trajectory and guidance patterns.
Palantir has demonstrated consistent earnings beats over the past two years, with the company regularly exceeding analyst expectations on both revenue and profitability metrics. The firm's shift towards profitability and positive free cash flow has reset Street expectations upward, yet consensus estimates have historically lagged management guidance. This pattern of conservative consensus relative to actual delivery underpins the current pricing, though such extreme confidence leaves minimal room for disappointment or guidance misses that could trigger a downside surprise.
Key variables for traders include any pre-earnings commentary from management, changes to customer concentration risk, and the trajectory of commercial segment growth relative to government revenues. Palantir's recent earnings calls have emphasised margin expansion and operating leverage, particularly in its higher-margin commercial business. Traders should monitor for any material changes in customer wins, contract values, or forward guidance that might signal deceleration—factors that could pressure non-GAAP EPS even if headline revenue targets are met. The settlement window closes immediately after market hours on 4 May, allowing minimal time for post-earnings volatility to influence resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Palantir (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pltr contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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