Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe. This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met. The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% | 88% YES | 13% NO |
| Kevin Hassett & Rate ≤ 2.5% | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Kevin Hassett & Rate > 2.5% | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Rick Rieder & Rate ≤ 2.5% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Rick Rieder & Rate > 2.5% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Christopher Waller & Rate ≤ 2.5% | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Christopher Waller & Rate > 2.5% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market combines two distinct outcomes: confirmation of the next Federal Reserve Chair and whether the Fed's policy rate reaches 2.5% or lower by year-end 2026. The current 10% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the joint probability of both conditions materialising. Jerome Powell's term extends to May 2026, meaning any successor confirmation would occur in the months preceding that date. The settlement window captures a narrow window for rate movement, as the Fed would need to cut from current levels significantly within roughly two years.
Historical precedent suggests Fed rate trajectories depend heavily on inflation dynamics and economic conditions rather than Chair identity alone. Under previous chairs facing disinflation periods—Volcker in the early 1980s and Bernanke during 2008–2015—rates moved according to economic necessity rather than personnel change. The probability of reaching 2.5% depends on whether inflation remains sufficiently subdued to justify aggressive cuts, an outcome markets currently price as unlikely given sticky services inflation and labour market resilience.
Traders should monitor Fed communications through 2025 regarding rate expectations, inflation data releases, and labour market reports. The timeline for nominating Powell's successor typically occurs 6–9 months before term expiration, with Senate confirmation hearings following. Any significant shift in inflation trajectory or recession signals would materially alter the probability of hitting 2.5%. Market participants should track both the Fed's forward guidance and economic data releases, as these will drive both the Chair confirmation process and rate expectations through the settlement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$110K in lifetime turnover and $54K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for parlays contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $91 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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