Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? | 14% YES | 86% NO |
The CDC's Travel Health Notice system uses a four-tier classification, with Level 4 ("Avoid All Travel") representing the highest alert status reserved for destinations where disease transmission poses substantial risk to travellers. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 14% implied probability through December 2026, reflecting relatively low near-term expectations for such an escalation across the roughly two-year settlement window.
Historically, Level 4 notices have been issued sparingly. The CDC issued them during the 2014–2016 West African Ebola outbreak (Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone), the 2016 Zika epidemic in parts of Latin America and the Caribbean, and for Yemen during its cholera crisis. The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic prompted widespread Level 4 notices but only after sustained community transmission had already occurred globally. The rarity of these designations—typically requiring both documented sustained transmission and significant risk to international travellers—supports the current probability assessment that such a notice remains unlikely within a 24-month horizon absent a novel pathogen emergence or rapid escalation of an existing threat.
Traders monitoring this market should track WHO disease surveillance reports, emerging pathogen announcements from major health agencies, and any unusual outbreak clusters reported in credible epidemiological sources. The WHO's Disease Outbreak News feed and CDC's Emerging Infectious Diseases journal provide early signals. Seasonal influenza variants, mpox developments, and any novel zoonotic spillover events represent potential catalysts. The market's probability will likely shift materially only following confirmed sustained human-to-human transmission of a novel or significantly mutated pathogen with demonstrated travel-related spread potential.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$71K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for pandemics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 14%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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