Trade: US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $8K
- Total Volume
- $23K
- 24h Volume
- $75
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026? | 20% YES | 81% NO |
Market context
The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has not issued a new combined operating licence for a nuclear power plant since 2016, when it approved Vogtle Units 3 and 4 in Georgia. That two-unit approval marked the first new COL issuance in over a decade and remains the most recent. The NRC's licensing pipeline currently contains several applications in various stages of review, including NuScale's small modular reactor design and conventional large reactor proposals, but none have reached final approval. The 23% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial regulatory and technical hurdles that typically extend licensing timelines beyond initial expectations.
Historical precedent suggests caution about near-term approvals. The Vogtle licensing process took approximately four years from initial application to COL issuance, whilst earlier projects experienced delays of six to ten years. Current applications have faced extended review periods, with the NRC requesting additional safety analyses and design clarifications. The agency's workload, staffing constraints, and the technical complexity of evaluating new reactor designs all contribute to extended timelines.
Key catalysts for 2026 include the NRC's published review schedules for pending applications and any announcements regarding accelerated licensing pathways. NuScale's design certification was approved in September 2023, but its COL application remains under review. Traders should monitor NRC public meeting calendars, Federal Register notices, and statements from the agency's leadership regarding licensing priorities. Any congressional action on nuclear permitting reform could theoretically accelerate timelines, though such legislative changes typically require years to implement operationally.
Wikipedia Context
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U. S. Grant Sharp Jr.Ulysses Simpson Grant Sharp Jr. was a four-star admiral of the United States Navy who served as Commander-in-Chief, United States Pacific Fleet (CINCPACFLT) from 1963 to 1964; and Commander-in-Chief, United States Pacific Command (CINCPAC) from 1964 to 1968. He was the serving CINCPAC during the Gulf of Tonkin Incident, the event which largely precipitated t
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US GranvilleUnion Sportive Granville, commonly referred to as US Granville or simply Granville, is a French football club based in Granville in the Lower Normandy region.
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Ulysses S. GrantUlysses S. Grant was the 18th president of the United States, serving from 1869 to 1877. He previously led the Union Army to victory in the American Civil War in 1865 as commanding general.
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United States Grand PrixThe United States Grand Prix is a motor racing event that has been held on and off since 1908, when it was known as the American Grand Prize. The Grand Prix later became part of the Formula One World Championship. As of 2025, the Grand Prix has been held 54 times at ten different locations. Since 2012, it has been held every year at the Circuit of the Americ
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 20% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $500 if YES resolves true — a 400% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$23K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for nuke contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $75 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 20%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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